Multivariate discriminant function based on six biochemical markers in blood can predict the cirrhotic evolution of chronic hepatitis.

BACKGROUND Serologic markers have been proposed for monitoring hepatic fibrosis in chronic active liver disease. Because none of these markers, when used singly, is totally satisfactory, we developed and evaluated a multivariate approach. METHODS We studied two cohorts of chronic hepatitis (54 patients) and cirrhosis patients (49 patients) to identify a panel of biochemical markers that discriminates between the two diseases. Using multivariate discriminant analysis, we selected a function, based on the concentrations of six biochemical markers (fibronectin, prothrombin, pseudocholinesterase, alanine aminotransferase, manganese superoxide dismutase, and N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase). We then prospectively validated this function on a second temporal cohort of patients. RESULTS Multivariate discriminant analysis correctly classified 93.7% of patients (94.3% of chronic hepatitis and 92.9% of cirrhosis patients) in the first cohort and 85% of patients (89.5% of chronic hepatitis patients and 81% of cirrhosis patients) in the second cohort. CONCLUSIONS Discriminant analysis of results of six inexpensive biochemical markers provides a high predictive value for differentiation between liver cirrhosis and chronic hepatitis. Consequently, these biochemical markers condensed into a multivariate discriminant analysis value for each patient provide information that can be contributory for subsequent options during the evolution of the natural history of chronic hepatitis.